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Here's a look at Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since 1948 together with the real (inflation-adjusted) S&P Composite.
I've highlighted the one generally acknowledged double-dip recession over this timeframe. The growth in GDP over the last four quarters makes the NBER recession call seem reasonable. However, the downward GDP revisions in recent months leave the door open for a possible double dip.
The double-dip in the early 1980s was to some extent engineered by the Federal Reserve. Chairman Volcker raised the Federal Funds Rate north of 20% to break the back of the persistent inflation that had plagued the 1970s. The situation today is far different. In 1982 the Boomer generation was on the threshold of its high income years. Today the aging Boomers are struggling with high unemployment, reduced net worth. If we do have a double dip, it will probably feel quite different from the early 1980s.
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