My recent post on federal debt was based on data in the 2011 budget introduced by President Obama on February 1. The main focus was the six-year forecast by the Office of Management and Budget for 2010-2015.

Today's chart examines the pattern of the seven rolling forecasts since the 2005 Bush budget was presented in February 2004. As you can see, 2008 was a pivotal year. In fact, the federal debt from 2000-2008 and the five Bush budget forecasts shown on this chart (2005-2009) deviate only slightly from a linear regression drawn through the debt data and extended to 2015, illustrated here. Despite the war or terror and the cost of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, federal debt was a relatively simple extrapolation.

The financial crisis that began in 2008 changed everything. Government policies to deal with the crisis have significantly altered the OMB estimates, as the two Obama budgets (2010 and 2011) dramatically illustrate. The 2010 budget (presented February 26, 2009, 11 days before the market low) included a forecast for the fiscal-year-end debt that proved to be 8.3% higher than the 2009 final number, a fact that illustrates the magnitude of uncertainty introduced by the financial crisis. The 2011 six-year forecast has scaled back the numbers for 2010 and 2011, but it closely tracks the later trend of the previous budget.

These federal debt forecasts confirm we what already know — 2008 was a major economic turning point, a metaphoric fork in the road. However, the chart helps us quantify the magnitude of the new direction. The current 2015 forecast of a 19.68 Trillion debt is about 46% higher than the equivalent point (about 13.5 Trillion) on the road not taken.