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Charts in my articles frequently use regression trend lines drawn in Excel to illustrate market patterns. For example, see this chart on inflation-adjusted secular bull/bear markets. In simple terms, a regression trend line is mathematically calculated such that the sum total distance of the closes above the trend is the same as the total distance below the trend.
In contrast, Chris has applied his analytical skills to draw trend lines on nominal charts that approximately connect the bottoms and/or tops of market patterns. The Dow chart shows upper and lower trend lines since the first rally after the Crash of 1929. Over 50 years later, the index finally broke above the upper line. That line appeared to provide resistance in the mid 1960s, with a breakout finally coming in the mid 1990s. The line then seems to have provided support during the Tech Bubble bottom, but it gave way during the Financial Crisis of 2008. We're now at another inflection point. Will the Dow break above the line? Or will it serve as resistance?
Chris's S&P 500 chart covers a much shorter period. The solid trend line served as resistance until the mid 1990s and (like the Dow trend line) became support during the Tech Crash. And like the Dow chart, this one also shows us at an inflection point — one that Chris highlights with the dotted resistance trend line since the nominal all-time high in the S&P 500 in October 2007.
Now that the excitement of the Winter Olympics is behind us, we market watchers can turn our attention to the lines of combat on the charts.